In a race with only six horses running, you have a 1 in 6 chance of picking a winner. Therefore, it is statistically speaking, a bad race to bet on. In this case a favorite will place almost 100% of the time.
If the horses just below the favorite have better odds, such as 4/1, 5/1 or better; then place your bet on those horses. You really need odds of at least 4/1 to win anything if the horse that you bet on places second or third. Remember, when you use this system, you are making your predictions on the odds. Thus, place your bet around 20 minutes to race time.
As a general rule, the favorite will win about 1/3 of the time, but what is amazing is how often the favorite will place, especially when less than half of the field is 5-1 or lower. The reason being that the odds are often better than the favorite winning the race. Often the odds on the horse most likely to win is poor. Of course, if you placed a win bet and the horse does win, then you will come away with lots of money. If the odds are less than 4/1, then I suggest passing such a horse race. I suggest that you choose horse races with nine runners and 1/4 odds on the first three, or six runners with 1/4 odds on the first two. Thus, you can see that the fewer the runners there are, the better your chances of winning. Remember, that your horse only has to come in the first three in a six or nine horse race for you to come away with a profit. In 2 out of 3 races some other horse wins.
Thus, the question asked is if you should bet on the horse most likely to win? Sometimes the answer to this is “no”. Of course, this is providing that you placed a place or show bet. The key point: is stay away from horse races where there are lots of runners!
Why does the horse predicted to place actually wins so many races? Maybe because the favorite usually only wins 1 in 3 races. For this reason, I do not always place my money on the horse that is predicted to win. Look at the odds being offered and if they are better on the second or third horse, then go for it.
As one can see, it often is better to bet on a horse you think is going to place. However, bookmakers/tracks usually only offer poor odds if you bet place or show on such a horse. However, let us say that the race has just six runners, then you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning. In order to win a horse race, you might want to predict the winner by using statistical calculations instead. In a race with 20 runners you have a 1 in 20 chance of picking the winner.
In my opinion, the secret of winning on the horses is to look at the statistics. And do not forget, the horse still has a chance of winning too. Thus, I suggest that you limit yourself to horse races with either 6 or 9 horses running to have the best chance of winning.
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